Thursday, September 25, 2008

Does Barack Obama lead McCain in the Polls?

Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll -

Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Weekly Polls

According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll, Barack Obama is leading John McCain by a large margin. I don't believe it. As we get closer the the election, some people who want Obama to win, will play with the polls. So let us take a very close look at this poll together.

First this is a randon telephone poll, so the survey, conducted Friday through Monday, included telephone interviews with a random national sample of 1,082 adults, including 916 registered voters. 916 of those called where registered voters and 166 where not registered at all. What good is their opinion? They will not vote Nov 4th, they can't.

905. Are you Registered to vote at your present address or not?

Yes 78 percent No 21 percent 1 percent no opinion

Can you believe that 21 percent in this poll can't vote? Another question that was asked "What party are you leaning toward Democrat or Republican?

8/22/08 Democrat 53 percent Republican 37 percent
8/22/08RV Democrat 52 percent Republican 41 percent

The poll over sample the African American vote, for a total of 201 black respondents. The RV is the revised poll when the black count was lowered to the population ratio. In the first sample the Democrats out numbered the Republicans by 16 points, In the revised the Democrats out numbered the Republicans by 11 points.

Now let us look at the ideology of those polled. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

8/22/08 Liberal 23 percent, Moderate 42 percent, Conservative 33 percent.

The poor conservative, Republicans is only 33 percent.

Now last party identification. Gererally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as.

8/22/08 Democrat 36 percent Republican 26 percent Independent 33 percent. Other 5 percent.

In this poll Democrats way out numbered Republicans. Now does the Washington Post have an agenda? Just take a look at the other pollsters who took polls that weekend. You will see that the Washington Post is try to sway public opinion and get their guy, Barack Obama elected.

Other post on Obama.
Polls Show Obama Losing Older Women Voters.
Obama Citizen, Leader of the World.

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